Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
